President Donald Trump and other senior White House officials have spent a few days past making Americans a possible economic slowdown they say will then lead to stronger growth ahead.
With the fear that creates the potential impact of tariffs, the slowdown of the labor market and the indicators showed a possible negative increase in the first trimester, the president and his senior lieutenant are designing a largely optimistic view of close burning.
“There is a transition period because what we are doing is very big,” Trump said on Sunday in the Fox News Show “the future of Sunday morning.” “We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. … It takes some time, but I think it should be great for us.”
Asked if he thinks a recession is immediate, Trump said, “I hate to predict such things.” He later added, “Look, we will have interruption, but we are fine with that.”
US President Donald Trump gestures as he walks into the hip in the Navy one while heading to the White House along the way to Florida, Washington, DC, SH.BA, March 7, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Duddy
The comments come over a rocked period for markets, with actions riding on a continuous coaster depending on the news of the day. The main averages slide again on Monday, with the latest White House insurance doing little to assert the stunned market nerves.
While Trump used Wall Street as a constant barometer of his progress during his first term in office, he discouraged him to do it once.
“What I have to do is build a strong place,” he said. “You really can’t see the stock market.”
‘A detox period’ from the expense
An evolving topic from the administration is that any increased slowdown or overthrow is an inheritance from Trump’s ancestor Joe Biden and his stimulus driven by debt and deficit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for a “redistribution” of the economy away from fiscal and monetary distance.
“There will be a natural adjustment as we turn away from public spending on private spending,” Bessent told CNBC on Friday. “The market and the economy have just become fixed and we have become dependent on this government spending, and there will be a detox period.”
This adjustment may come sooner than later.
The closely followed meter of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, closely followed GDPNow of the economic data at the introduction, is following a 2.4% decrease in the level of growth for the first trimester. If kept up – the mass can be unstable, especially at the beginning of the quarter – it would be the first trimester to go negatively to three years and the greatest return from the Covid Pandemia.
Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett, in a Monday interview with CNBC, called Outlook GDPNOW a metric of President Biden’s heritage “and” a very temporary phenomenon “.
“There are many reasons to be extremely strong for the economy that goes ahead,” he said. “But surely, this quarter, there are some strokes in the data, including negative GDPNOW, which relate to both the inheritance of the biden and some time effects that are taking place before tariffs.”
Speaking on Sunday with the “Meet The Press” of NBC “, trade secretary Howard Lutnick said:” There will be no recession in America. … If Donald Trump is bringing growth to America, I will never bet on the recession, there is no chance. “
Concerns about jobs and customer
A big moving for the Fed model was an increase in trade deficit in a record $ 131.4 billion in January, partly the product of a dance in gold imports, as well as companies that accumulate before tariffs.
However, there are also increasing concerns about consumer spending after a return in January. Consumer activity is more than two-thirds of GDP, so any further decline would be increased for concern.
At the same time, a good list of title salaries earns in February 151,000 masked some basic points of problem problems.
While the quoted unemployment rate usually quoted only up to 4.1%, the so -called real norm that measures discouraged workers and those in part -time work, but would better have full -time jobs increased to 8%, half a percentage had earned the highest level since October 2021.
The growth came as the rotations of those who carry part -time work for economic reasons increased by 460,000, a 10% increase to the highest level since May 2021. Most of the movement in categories came from those who cite slow work or business conditions. Further, the level of those reporting in full -time work decreased by 1.2 million while partial mine triggered 610,000.
Market veteran Jim Paulsen, a former economist and strategist with Wells Fargo and other firms, highlighted in a substance post that the labor market is approaching the “stall speed” and that profits on the real unemployment rate are in accordance with a recession, though this is not necessarily foreseen.
Growth, he wrote, “highlights the growing stress in the US labor market. Moreover, this is another indicator that will intimidate the fear of the recession among investors and strengthen concerns about a possible bear market.”
Few economists at Wall Street are expecting a recession. Goldman Sachs, for example, shorten its GDP perspective for 2025 to 1.7%, decreased half a percentage from the previous forecast, while sparking the probability of 12-month recession to just 20%, from 15%.
Trump administration officials insist that the current soft scraps, including the uncertainty of the tariffs, is part of a wider strategy.
“What we are doing is that we are building an extraordinary foundation,” Trump told Fox Show.